Pakistan tanker exits Strait of Hormuz amid US-Iran tension easing

## Market Snapshot The market on whether Donald Trump will announce the lifting of the U.S. blockade of the Strait of Hormuz by May 31, 2026, is currently priced at 40.5% YES, down from 44% 24 hours ago. The market on a U.S.-Iran ceasefire extension by April 22, 2026, remains unchanged at 0.1% YES. ## Key Takeaways – The successful transit of the Khairpur through the Strait of Hormuz suggests a selective easing of tensions, likely due to Pakistan’s mediating role. – Market pricing suggests a modest increase in the probability of a U.S. blockade lift announcement as negotiations appear more favorable. – The ongoing U.S.-Iran conflict and peace talks in Islamabad continue to create uncertainty in related markets.

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