Palantir, Thales and startups competing to build FAA's predictive air traffic AI
The FAA is developing an AI system called SMART to predict air traffic conflicts up to two hours in advance, replacing the current 15-minute window. Palantir, Thales, and startup Air Space Intelligence are competing for the contract, each offering distinct technological and operational advantages. The initiative follows safety concerns highlighted by a runway collision at LaGuardia and is part of a broader $32.5 billion modernization effort. The system could launch in limited form later this year, though past FAA tech overhauls suggest challenges ahead.
- ▪The FAA's SMART system uses 4D modeling to predict airspace conflicts up to two hours before they occur, a significant extension from the current 15-minute window.
- ▪Palantir, Thales, and Air Space Intelligence are the three companies competing for the FAA contract, representing different approaches to government AI integration.
- ▪The project follows a March 2026 incident at LaGuardia Airport involving an Air Canada Express plane and a fire truck, which exposed controller overwork and outdated safety systems.
- ▪The FAA is replacing 612 radar systems, modernizing its NOTAM system, and hiring 1,200 new controllers in fiscal 2026 as part of a larger air traffic control overhaul.
- ▪Air Space Intelligence's Flyways AI already manages over 40% of US air traffic through airline partnerships, giving it real-world operational experience relevant to the SMART system.
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<img alt="Palantir, Thales, and a startup are competing to build the FAA’s predictive air traffic AI" class="c-article__mediaImage w-full absolute top-0" src="https://cdn0.tnwcdn.com/wp-content/blogs.dir/1/files/2026/04/palantir-thales-air-space-intelligence-faa-smart-ai-air-traffic.png" sizes="(max-width: 1023px) 100vw 868px" srcset="https://cdn0.tnwcdn.com/wp-content/blogs.dir/1/files/2026/04/palantir-thales-air-space-intelligence-faa-smart-ai-air-traffic.png 576w, https://cdn0.tnwcdn.com/wp-content/blogs.dir/1/files/2026/04/palantir-thales-air-space-intelligence-faa-smart-ai-air-traffic.png 1152w, https://cdn0.tnwcdn.com/wp-content/blogs.dir/1/files/2026/04/palantir-thales-air-space-intelligence-faa-smart-ai-air-traffic.png 1280w" > document.getElementsByClassName('tnw-ad-wrapper')[1]?.classList?.add('ad-wrapper__growth-quarters'); In short: The FAA is developing SMART (Strategic Management of Airspace Routing Trajectories), an AI system that would extend air traffic conflict prediction from 15 minutes to two hours, with Palantir, Thales, and Air Space Intelligence competing for the contract. The project follows the LaGuardia crash that exposed controller overwork and aging systems, and sits within a $32.5 billion modernisation programme as the agency replaces 612 outdated radar systems and recruits 1,200 new controllers in fiscal 2026. The Federal Aviation Administration is building an AI system called SMART that would allow air traffic controllers to predict and resolve flight conflicts up to two hours before they happen, replacing a planning window that currently extends just 15 minutes. Three companies are competing for the contract: Palantir, Thales, and Air Space Intelligence. Transportation Secretary Sean Duffy confirmed the project and the three bidders on 17 April, with a press event scheduled for 21 April to provide further details. SMART, which stands for Strategic Management of Airspace Routing Trajectories, uses high-fidelity 4D modelling to anticipate bottlenecks and schedule conflicts before aircraft leave the ground. The system would shift air traffic management from reactive to predictive, addressing the fundamental problem that the current infrastructure was designed for a lower volume of flights and relies on controllers making real-time decisions with limited forward visibility. The FAA has said the system could be operational in some form later this year. The three bidders Palantir Technologies brings the deepest government relationship of the three. The company’s revenue guidance for 2026 is approximately $7.2 billion, representing 61% growth, driven by a $10 billion ceiling-value Army contract signed in July 2025 and expanding partnerships with GE Aerospace and Airbus. Its government revenue grew 70% year over year in Q4 2025. Palantir’s pitch for aviation AI is an extension of its core business: ingesting vast quantities of operational data and presenting it in decision-support interfaces that government users can act on without needing to understand the underlying models. TNW City Coworking space - Where your best work happensA workspace designed for growth, collaboration, and endless networking opportunities in the heart of tech. Book a tour now Thales, the European aerospace and defence firm, has more than 85 years of supplying air traffic management systems to the FAA and the Department of Defense. More than 99% of instrument landing systems at US airports use Thales equipment. The company’s TopSky…
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