Random thoughts while gazing at the misty AI Frontier
OpenAI and Anthropic are each generating revenue equivalent to 0.1% of US GDP, marking rapid growth as AI contributes an estimated 0.25%-0.5% of US economic output. The AI research community has experienced a shift akin to a distributed IPO, with top talent receiving substantial compensation, altering focus and behavior across labs. Compute limitations from memory supply constraints may cap near-term AI progress, reinforcing an oligopoly among leading labs until new capacity comes online.
- ▪OpenAI and Anthropic are each rumored to have a $30B revenue run rate, amounting to 0.1% of US GDP.
- ▪The surge in AI researcher compensation, driven by Meta's aggressive hiring, has created a cross-company 'distributed IPO' effect among top AI talent.
- ▪AI labs are facing compute constraints due to limited memory supply from manufacturers like Hynix, Samsung, and Micron, potentially creating a short-term ceiling on model advancements.
- ▪If current trends continue, AI could account for roughly 1% of US GDP by the end of 2026.
- ▪The compute shortage may extend the lifespan of existing chips and lead labs to shift resources between model development and application building.
- ▪This constraint could reinforce an oligopoly in the LLM market until at least 2028.
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Random thoughts while gazing at the misty AI FrontierA bunch of random things I have been thinking about, some of which are probably wrongElad GilApr 20, 20269211ShareI was originally going to write a long articulate post for each of the below, with lots of fancy graphic, charts, and detailed analysis. Then realized it is too much work. Instead, here is some human idea slop & random thoughts. Enjoy!OAI and Anthropic are now at 0.1% of US GDP each. What % of GDP is AI revenue in 2030?US GDP is roughly $30T. OpenAI and Anthropic are both rumored to be currently in the ball park of $30B of revenue run rate, or at 0.1% of overall GDP each. Through in clouds and other services and AI has grown from roughly zero to 0.25%-0.5% of US GDP in just a few years.
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Excerpt limited to ~120 words for fair-use compliance. The full article is at Hacker News (AI / LLM).