Senate advances Kevin Warsh’s Fed Chair nomination, Powell exit likely by May 31
Senate Majority Leader John Thune filed cloture on Kevin Warsh’s nomination to be Federal Reserve Chair, advancing the confirmation process amid President Trump’s push to replace Jerome Powell. Market indicators suggest a high probability of Warsh’s confirmation by May 15, 2026, and a near-certain departure of Powell by May 31. The nomination faces hurdles due to internal Republican disagreements and an ongoing DOJ probe linked to Powell.
- ▪Senate Majority Leader John Thune filed cloture on Kevin Warsh’s nomination, a key procedural step toward confirmation.
- ▪Kevin Warsh previously served as a Federal Reserve governor from 2006 to 2011.
- ▪The market assigns a 97.8% probability to Jerome Powell leaving his role as Fed Chair by May 31.
- ▪Warsh’s confirmation by May 15, 2026, is priced at 92.3% YES in prediction markets.
- ▪Outgoing Senator Thom Tillis has tied his support to conditions involving a DOJ investigation into Powell.
Opening excerpt (first ~120 words) tap to expand
## Market Snapshot The market for Jerome Powell’s potential exit as Fed Chair by May 14, 2026, is priced at 2.4% YES, down from a previous 5%. The market on Kevin Warsh’s confirmation by May 1, 2026, shows a 0.1% YES probability. The sub-market for Warsh’s confirmation by May 15, 2026, is priced at 92.3% YES. ## Key Takeaways – The cloture filing by Senate Majority Leader Thune appears to advance Kevin Warsh’s nomination to Fed Chair, suggesting increased likelihood of confirmation. – Market behavior indicates a significant increase in the probability of Warsh’s confirmation by May 15, consistent with recent procedural developments. – Jerome Powell’s potential exit by May 31 is priced at 97.8% YES, reflecting the belief in an imminent change in leadership.
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