Tactical voting at next election could push Reform into fourth place, poll finds
This would mean achieving 42% of parliamentary seats with 28% of the vote.Reform would become the official opposition on 153. This represents 24% of seats – the same as its vote share. The Conservatives would fall to third place with 85.Two hundred seats are tight marginals decided by under five points, meaning a two- to three-point swing could move about 100 seats that are likely to decide a future election.
- ▪This would mean achieving 42% of parliamentary seats with 28% of the vote.Reform would become the official opposition on 153.
- ▪This represents 24% of seats – the same as its vote share.
- ▪The Conservatives would fall to third place with 85.Two hundred seats are tight marginals decided by under five points, meaning a two- to three-point swing could move about 100 seats that are likely to decide a future election.
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| Canonical URL | https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2026/sep/24/tactical-voting-uk-election-reform-fourth-place-poll |
| Publication time | Thu, 24 Sep 2026 09:14:54 GMT |
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Composite: Prina Shah for the Guardian / PA / Getty ImagesView image in fullscreen Composite: Prina Shah for the Guardian / PA / Getty ImagesPoliticsTactical voting at next election could push Reform into fourth place, poll findsPolling suggests Andy Burnham is attracting progressives back to Labour, motivated by desire to stop Nigel Farage How Labour’s majority depends on five progressive voter types – in charts UK politics live – latest updates Jessica Elgot and Ashley KirkThu 24 Sep 2026 05.14 EDTLast modified on Thu 24 Sep 2026 05.18 EDTSharePrefer the Guardian on GoogleProgressive voters could push Reform UK into fourth place and put Labour within touching distance of a majority if tactical voting is widespread at the next election, a major poll has found.Andy Burnham is beginning to…
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