The 2026 El Niño Is on Track to Be the Strongest on Record
Models have consistently forecast that this year's El Niño—characterized by hotter than normal waters in the eastern tropical Pacific—could be among the strongest on records. The new analysis relies on 667 simulations and compares them with historical records of the most intense El Niño events since 1877. It also disentangles El Niño's intensity from the background warming driven by fossil fuels, making it easier to draw comparisons between super El Niños.The model average shows heat in the Niño 3.4 region could peak at 3.6 degrees Celsius (6.5 degrees Fahrenheit) above normal levels.
- ▪Models have consistently forecast that this year's El Niño—characterized by hotter than normal waters in the eastern tropical Pacific—could be among the strongest on records.
- ▪The new analysis relies on 667 simulations and compares them with historical records of the most intense El Niño events since 1877.
- ▪It also disentangles El Niño's intensity from the background warming driven by fossil fuels, making it easier to draw comparisons between super El Niños.The model average shows heat in the Niño 3.4 region could peak at 3.6 degrees Celsius (
WIRED files mainly under tech. We currently carry 480 of its stories.
Opening excerpt (first ~120 words) tap to expand
Fernanda GonzálezScienceJul 24, 2026 2:50 PMThe 2026 El Niño Is on Track to Be the Strongest on RecordThis climate phenomenon could cause a massive global temperature spike and cause economic losses of $10 trillion by 2032.Photo Illustration: Getty ImagesCommentLoaderSave StorySave this storyCommentLoaderSave StorySave this storyThe world could face the strongest El Niño since record keeping began, increasing the likelihood of extreme weather events and significant, long-term economic impacts globally.A new analysis by Berkeley Earth climate scientist Zeke Hausfather paints a worrying picture of the climate phenomenon developing in the Pacific Ocean.
…
Excerpt limited to ~120 words for fair-use compliance. The full article is at WIRED.
Discussion
0 commentsMore from WIRED
