The Average Guys Outsmarting Wall Street on Prediction Markets
Prediction market platforms Polymarket and Kalshi have seen rapid growth, handling $25 billion in trading volume in April 2026. After initial regulatory challenges, both firms secured partnerships with major media outlets and obtained clearance to operate in the United States. Users now trade on a wide range of event contracts, from political outcomes to weather forecasts, without a traditional house taking a cut.
- ▪Polymarket and Kalshi together processed $25 billion in April, a tenfold increase from the previous year.
- ▪Both platforms have secured exclusive partnerships with organizations such as The Wall Street Journal, the New York Stock Exchange, CNN, CNBC, the Associated Press, and Fox News.
- ▪Regulatory actions by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission in 2022 and 2024 forced Polymarket to relocate to Panama and led Kalshi to win a court case permitting political betting.
- ▪In July 2025 Polymarket acquired a federally licensed derivatives exchange, gaining CFTC approval to offer limited political, weather, and sports contracts to U.S. users.
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You have a preview view of this article while we are checking your access. When we have confirmed access, the full article content will load.Credit...Illustration by Danielle Del PlatoSkip to contentSkip to site indexThe Average Guys Outsmarting Wall Street on Prediction MarketsHow prediction market “sharps” have made millions wagering on everything from war to Rotten Tomatoes.Credit...Illustration by Danielle Del PlatoSupported bySKIP ADVERTISEMENTListen · 41:57 min Share full article266By Adam IscoeMay 26, 2026The joke among young men these days is that everybody’s got a little money riding on something: football games, foreign elections, the odds of a U.S. military strike. Except it’s not really a joke. I recently made $3.79 guessing when the United States would attack Tehran.
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