Trump claims Iran seeks end to naval blockade amid diplomatic hints
Trump claims Iran wants an end to the naval blockade, suggesting possible diplomatic progress, but prediction markets show little reaction. The April 30 ceasefire market remains near 2.9%, with traders unconvinced by vague statements. Limited movement and low confidence persist due to lack of concrete evidence or official intermediaries. Markets may require formal signals or de-escalation to shift significantly.
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Trump claims Iran requested an end to the naval blockade, hinting at diplomatic overtures. The ceasefire by April 30 market sits at 2.9% YES, barely changed from 3% yesterday. Traders aren’t biting on Trump’s hint of diplomacy. The April 30 ceasefire market shows minor movement with just two days left. A 48-point spike earlier this week didn’t stick. Traders appear to want more than a vague statement before pricing in a resolution. The US invasion market could drift down slightly if talks materialize, but the lack of detail and continued military activity (like Israel’s attacks on medics) keep expectations low. Traders are likely waiting for concrete evidence of negotiations or an intermediary stepping in.
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