Ukrainian drone attack ignites Tuapse oil refinery, escalating energy strikes

A Ukrainian drone attack has again set ablaze the Tuapse oil refinery, continuing Kyiv’s campaign against Russian energy infrastructure. The odds of a Russia-Ukraine ceasefire by April 30 sit at 0% YES, unchanged from 24 hours ago. Market reaction The April 30 ceasefire market is stuck at 0%, while the May 31 market sits at 4% YES, down from 4% a day ago. The term structure shows a 3-point increase over 31 days, pointing to a slow timeline for any resolution. Total USDC traded in the ceasefire markets is $2,461 over the past 24 hours, with $865 required to move the April 30 odds by 5 points. This thin liquidity means even small trades can cause large price swings, though no major moves have followed the latest attack.

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