US Midterms Odds Tracker: Democrats In The Lead To Flip The Senate
Recent prediction markets indicate a shift in favor of Republicans for the 2026 Senate control race. Republicans are now seen as having a clearer advantage, with Kalshi showing them at 56 percent and Polymarket at 53 percent. The upcoming midterms will be crucial, as Democrats need to gain four seats to take control or achieve a 50-50 split.
- ▪Prediction markets have shifted towards Republicans, giving them a 56 percent chance of winning Senate control according to Kalshi.
- ▪Democrats need to gain net four seats to take control of the Senate in the upcoming midterms.
- ▪The Senate race is tight, with sportsbooks now treating the contest as a coin-flip between the two parties.
Opening excerpt (first ~120 words) tap to expand
By Sam StevensonAssociate News EditorShareNewsweek is a Trust Project memberSee more of our trusted coverage when you search.Prefer Newsweek on Googleto see more of our trusted coverage when you search.Republicans have jumped ahead of Democrats in the 2026 Senate control race on both major prediction markets, with traders now pricing a clearer GOP advantage than in late April.Prediction markets flipped toward Republicans this month, with Kalshi putting the GOP at 56 percent to win Senate control and Polymarket at 53 percent. In mid‑April, Republican odds on both markets had dipped into the mid‑40s.For now, markets, polls and forecasters reach the same broad conclusion: control of the Senate is genuinely up for grabs.
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