US silence on Iran school strike raises strategic questions

Former U.S. officials have called the extended silence over a U.S. strike on an Iranian school highly unusual. The market for the Iranian regime falling by May 31 is at 4% YES, up from 3% yesterday. The lack of official commentary on the operation, part of the broader U.S.–Israeli offensive, suggests a deeper strategic calculation rather than an isolated incident. Traders have responded cautiously, pushing regime change odds slightly higher. The April 30 market remains stable at 0.1% YES, pricing in almost no chance of immediate collapse within the next two days. The May 31 market at 4% YES has 33 days left until resolution. Daily USDC volume across regime fall markets is $145,850, with significant recent volatility.

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