Welsh Labour faces ‘existential’ change as party braces for May election defeat

The Welsh first minister and leader of Welsh Labour, Eluned Morgan, addresses party supporters in Newport last month. Photograph: Dimitris Legakis/Athena Pictures/The GuardianView image in fullscreenThe Welsh first minister and leader of Welsh Labour, Eluned Morgan, addresses party supporters in Newport last month. Photograph: Dimitris Legakis/Athena Pictures/The GuardianWelsh elections 2026Welsh Labour faces ‘existential’ change as party braces for May election defeat‘Critical debate’ about party’s identity and direction looms if it loses control of Senedd next month after 27 years in powerBethan McKernan Wales correspondentTue 28 Apr 2026 01.00 EDTSharePrefer the Guardian on GoogleWelsh Labour is the democratic world’s most successful election-winning machine, coming first in Wales in every general election since 1922 and every devolved election since 1999. Come next month’s Senedd election, however, this history-making run is expected to end.Labour’s collapse has left a vacuum, and former Labour voters are going to opposite ends of the political spectrum. Plaid Cymru and Nigel Farage’s Reform UK are neck and neck in the latest poll, although coalition maths make it highly unlikely Reform would be able to form a government.The possibility of Labour losing power after 27 years and the pro-independence Plaid entering government as a senior partner for the first time means “this election is huge”, said Laura McAllister, a professor of public policy at Cardiff University.Welsh Labour – and Wales itself – is at a crossroads, she added. “I’m not sure people have computed yet how existential both those things simultaneously are going to be.”Mapped: the elections that could deliver ‘unprecedented’ losses for LabourRead moreLosing Wales after a century would be yet another blow to the beleaguered prime minister, Keir Starmer, and the wider Labour party, and would be likely to amplify already loud calls for him to resign. Separatists in office in all three devolved nations for the first time – Plaid Cymru in the Senedd, the Scottish National party (SNP) in Holyrood and Sinn Féin in Stormont – would mean that whoever occupies No 10 Downing Street in the near future will have a constitutional fight on their hands.Welsh Labour, met with lacklustre receptions on the doorstep and with a very different future for Wales coming into view, is bracing for what one senior source described as a “critical debate about what the party stands for” after the election.“There will be those who try to defend 27 years in power, and attribute blame for a loss to the UK government or other factors,” they said. “But you have to be humble in losing. You have to understand why you lost the public’s trust and support and what needs to be done to stay relevant.”Welsh Labour’s record in office is mixed. The Welsh embarked on the devolution process more cautiously than Scotland and Northern Ireland, and initially very limited powers hampered Cardiff Bay administrations from the outset.Supporters insist the party held the line against 14 years of Conservative government in Westminster, protecting public services from the impact of austerity, Brexit and the Covid pandemic.But after 27 years of devolution, Wales has fallen behind the other UK nations in several key metrics. About 20% of Welsh NHS patients have to wait more than a year for hospital treatment, compared with about 4% in England.Welsh children’s reading, maths and science skills fell to the lowest recorded OECD…

This excerpt is published under fair use for community discussion. Read the full article at the Guardian.