WMO: Likelihood Increases of El Niño
The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) forecasts the likely development of an El Niño event from mid-2026, following rising sea-surface temperatures in the Equatorial Pacific. Climate models show high confidence in El Niño's onset and potential intensification, though forecast certainty is limited by the spring predictability barrier. El Niño typically influences global weather patterns, contributing to above-normal temperatures and regional shifts in rainfall and extreme weather.
- ▪An El Niño event is expected to develop from May–July 2026, with high confidence in its onset and subsequent intensification.
- ▪El Niño is characterized by warming ocean surface temperatures in the central and eastern Equatorial Pacific and typically occurs every two to seven years.
- ▪The WMO does not use the term 'super El Niño' as it is not part of standardized operational classifications.
- ▪Each El Niño event is unique but often brings increased rainfall to southern South America and the southern United States while causing drought in Australia and Indonesia.
- ▪Climate change does not necessarily increase El Niño frequency or intensity but can amplify its impacts by increasing atmospheric energy and moisture.
- ▪For May–July 2026, above-normal land surface temperatures are forecast nearly globally, especially in southern North America, Europe, and Northern Africa.
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WMO: Likelihood increases of El Niño News 24 April 2026 An El Niño event is expected to develop from mid-2026, impacting global temperature and rainfall patterns, according to the World Meteorological Organization (WMO). Share: Related Topics El Niño / La Niña The latest monthly Global Seasonal Climate Update from WMO signals a clear shift in the Equatorial Pacific: sea-surface temperatures are rising rapidly, pointing to a likely return of El Niño conditions as early as May–July 2026.
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