Iranian escalation fears coincide with US-Iran ceasefire odds collapse

Retired U.S. Air Force Lt. Colonel Karen Kwiatkowski’s comments about potential Iranian escalation have coincided with a near-total collapse in ceasefire odds. The US-Iran ceasefire extension market for April 22, 2026, now sits at 0.4%, down from 28% a week ago. Market reaction Kwiatkowski is retired, not a current official, but traders responded anyway. The April 22 market dropped sharply following her statement. A 50-point spike to 50% hit at 11:40 AM yesterday, then reverted almost immediately to current levels. That kind of whipsaw, a large move with no follow-through, points to a reactionary trade rather than any real shift in expectations.

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