James Comey indicted for threats against Trump via Instagram post
James Comey has been indicted on federal charges related to a 2025 Instagram post alleged to contain threats against Donald Trump, with markets indicating a high likelihood of arrest by May 15. The indictment marks a resurgence of legal action after a prior case was dismissed, intensifying scrutiny around Comey and political figures. Trading data shows strong market confidence in an impending arrest, with significant volume and liquidity in related prediction markets. The outcome may hinge on upcoming statements from legal officials or the Department of Justice.
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James Comey has been indicted on federal charges related to a 2025 Instagram post, and the odds of Comey being arrested by May 15 are at 87.0% YES. Market reaction The indictment charges Comey with making threats against Donald Trump via a cryptic Instagram post. Arrest-by-April-29 odds sit at just 11.0% YES, while the May 15 contract trades at 87.0% YES. Traders clearly don’t expect an arrest in the next few days but are pricing one in before mid-May. The term structure shows a 76-point jump from April 29 to May 15, meaning traders are betting on a catalyst within that window. The largest move in the last 24 hours was an 8-point spike in the May 15 market. Why it matters Trading volume across the combined markets reached $52,511 in USDC.
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