Iranian tankers evade US blockade, deliver 4M barrels to Asia
Two Iranian oil tankers successfully bypassed a US naval blockade, delivering approximately four million barrels of oil to Asia despite ongoing restrictions. The evasion underscores challenges to US efforts to curb Iranian oil exports following heightened tensions after a US-Israel attack on Iran. Market expectations reflect a reduced likelihood of the blockade being lifted by May 31, 2026, particularly under a potential Trump announcement.
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## Market Snapshot The market for whether Donald Trump will announce the lifting of the US blockade on the Strait of Hormuz by May 31, 2026, is currently priced at 39.5% YES, down from 44% 24 hours ago. The market for whether Strait of Hormuz traffic will return to normal by the end of April remains uncertain. ## Key Takeaways – The successful navigation of two Iranian tankers suggests ongoing challenges to the US blockade, impacting policy change expectations. – Market pricing indicates a decreased likelihood of a Trump announcement lifting the blockade before May 31. – The evasion of the blockade suggests continued disruption in Strait of Hormuz traffic, affecting market sentiment on normalization.
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