Israel deploys Iron Dome, troops to UAE amid Iran conflict

Israel’s deployment of Iron Dome and troops to the UAE during the ongoing conflict with Iran has pushed odds for a peace deal by April 30 down to 0.5% YES, from 1% a day ago. The deployment coincides with a drop in the Israel-Iran permanent peace deal market. The market’s term structure spreads from 0.5% for April 30 to 8.5% for June 30, meaning traders price in some possibility of movement over the next two months but almost none right now. Volume is thin at just $59 in USDC traded daily, consistent with low confidence in a near-term resolution. In the Gulf State military action market, odds for a Gulf State conducting military action against Iran by April 30 have ticked down slightly to 1.5% YES.

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