Steve Hilton's Chances of Beating Democrats in California Governor Race

By Sam StevensonAssociate News EditorShareNewsweek is a Trust Project memberSee more of our trusted coverage when you search.Prefer Newsweek on Googleto see more of our trusted coverage when you search.A new CBS News/YouGov poll shows Republican Steve Hilton narrowly leading a fractured California governor’s primary field as Democrats split support among several high-profile candidates.With six weeks until the June 2 primary, undecided voters outnumber any single candidate, making the race unusually volatile.A divided Democratic electorate raises the risk of a top‑two shutout, giving Republicans a rare opening in deep‑blue California.With primary ballots set to reach voters within weeks, California Democratic Party Chair Rusty Hicks warned earlier this month that the crowded Democratic field could have consequences, saying the "clock is ticking for candidates to do what is best for California in this historic moment."Newsweek has contacted Hilton for comment via his campaign website. Why It MattersCalifornia has not elected a Republican governor since Arnold Schwarzenegger left office in 2011, but the state’s top‑two primary system creates scenarios where party dominance alone does not guarantee general‑election access. With the current Governor, Gavin Newsom, term‑limited, the absence of an incumbent has produced an unusually crowded and unstable contest....What To KnowA new CBS News/YouGov survey conducted April 23–27 among 1,479 registered California voters underscores just how unsettled the race remains. Respondents were interviewed online, with the sample weighted by gender, age, race, education, region, and 2024 presidential vote. The margin of error was plus or minus 4.2 points for registered voters, and plus or minus 4.1 points for likely primary voters.In the head‑to‑head snapshot of vote choice, Hilton, a Republican and former Fox News host, leads the field with 16 percent, narrowly ahead of Democratic billionaire Tom Steyer at 15 percent and former Health and Human Services Secretary Xavier Becerra at 13 percent. No other candidate breaks into the mid‑teens.Crucially, undecided voters (26 percent) make up a larger share of the electorate than any single contender, highlighting how fluid preferences remain. CBS News notes that many voters are still considering multiple candidates and that familiarity, not enthusiasm, is driving early support.A Contest Defined By Cost Of LivingVoters across party lines share one conclusion: California has become increasingly unaffordable. In the CBS News/YouGov survey, 70 percent of registered voters now describe the cost of living as “unmanageable,” up from 61 percent in 2021, while just 30 percent say it is manageable, down eight points over the same period.That pressure has fed broader pessimism about opportunity in the state. Asked whether the so‑called “California Dream” is attainable today, 64 percent of voters say they are not too confident or not confident at all, compared with just 36 percent who express any degree of confidence. Only 7 percent say they are very confident it remains within reach.Age sharply shapes those views. Among Californians under 50, 49 percent say they are at least somewhat confident the California Dream is attainable, while 51 percent are not. ...Among voters aged 50 and older, pessimism dominates: 77 percent say they are not confident, compared with just 23 percent who express any optimism.Perceptions of the economy itself break down starkly along partisan…

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