Sweden warns of jet fuel shortage amid Middle East conflict concerns

Sweden’s early warning of a jet fuel shortage points to wider fallout from the Middle East conflict. The odds for US crude oil reserves falling to 325M by May 1 sit at 0.4% YES, unchanged from 24 hours ago. Market reaction The market saw a 48-point spike at 11:40 AM, briefly hitting 50% before settling back. The odds have stayed low, with three days until resolution. The Polymarket contract shows minimal trader confidence in a shortage-induced draw. Why it matters Actual USDC trading volume is $97 daily. It takes just $10 to shift the price by five percentage points, which means small trades cause outsized moves. This thin liquidity explains the 48-point spike and makes the contract vulnerable to sudden swings that don’t reflect genuine shifts in probability.

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