TotalEnergies warns of tighter oil supply as Strait of Hormuz closes
TotalEnergies has warned of tighter global oil supply due to the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, which handles 20% of oil transit, eliminating expectations of a 2026 hydrocarbon surplus. Geopolitical tensions have escalated with Ali al-Zaidi's U.S.-backed appointment as Iraq’s prime minister, reducing hopes for a U.S.-Iran ceasefire. Crude oil prices now have a 25% higher chance of reaching $90 by end of June, according to Polymarket data. Market volatility is expected to persist with limited liquidity amplifying price swings.
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TotalEnergies announced that the ongoing conflict has wiped out the expected 2026 hydrocarbon surplus, and crude oil prices hitting $90 by end of June now carry a 25% increased probability on Polymarket. The news has moved the crude oil price by end of June market. The surplus expectation is gone, pointing to tighter supply. TotalEnergies reported a severe supply disruption from the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, which handles 20% of global oil transit. With 62 days left until resolution, volatility is likely. On the geopolitical side, Ali al-Zaidi’s appointment as Iraq’s new prime minister appears to harden existing tensions. The US-Iran ceasefire market sits at 2.7% YES, down from 14% a week ago. Traders see almost no chance of a ceasefire. Al-Zaidi was appointed under U.S.
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