US inflation in March 2026, highest in nearly three years
The US recorded a 3.3% annual inflation rate in March 2026, the highest in nearly three years, driven largely by a surge in energy prices due to geopolitical tensions involving Iran. This inflation spike has reduced market expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts in mid-2026, with June's cut now seen as unlikely and rates likely to remain unchanged in July. Persistent inflation and its impact on economic growth and monetary policy are now key concerns for financial markets.
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## Market Snapshot US GDP growth Q1 2026 market is currently priced at 100% YES for growth being less than 1.0%. The Fed decision for June 2026 shows a 3.6% YES for a rate cut, while July 2026 market reflects an 87.5% YES for no change in rates. This marks significant shifts from previous pricing. ## Key Takeaways – Market activity suggests a high likelihood of US GDP growth being less than 1.0% for Q1 2026. – Elevated inflation appears to decrease expectations for a Fed rate cut in June 2026. – Persistent inflation may indicate a reduced probability of Fed rate cuts throughout 2026. ## Article Body The US experienced a substantial inflation rise in March 2026, with annual inflation reaching 3.3%, the largest gain in nearly three years.
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