The Iran War Is Tearing Trump’s Coalition Apart

Analysis The Iran War Is Tearing Trump’s Coalition Apart MAGA is not necessarily the same thing as America First. Ashford-Emma-foreign-policy-columnist Emma Ashford By Emma Ashford, a columnist at Foreign Policy and senior fellow with the Stimson Center’s Reimagining U.S. Grand Strategy Program. Supporters look on as U.S. President Donald Trump attends a roundtable discussion at the AC Hotel in Las Vegas, Nevada, on April 16. Supporters look on as U.S. President Donald Trump attends a roundtable discussion at the AC Hotel in Las Vegas, Nevada, on April 16. Win McNamee/Getty Images United States Emma Ashford April 28, 2026, 12:01 AM Iran War Analysis and news. It’s safe to say that President Donald Trump has lost the American people’s support for the war in Iran, if indeed he ever had it. As of mid-April, less than a quarter of those polled say that the war has been worth it, a number likely only to decrease as the war’s economic costs continue to mount globally. Yet as a lame-duck president, Trump is in many ways immune to much of the pressure that would normally dog a highly unpopular leader. The war and associated inflation are likely to cost Republicans more seats in the midterms—certainly more than they might have lost otherwise—but the president faces no imminent revolt from Congress. He is remarkably unconstrained for a man who has started one of the most unpopular wars in U.S. history. It’s safe to say that President Donald Trump has lost the American people’s support for the war in Iran, if indeed he ever had it. As of mid-April, less than a quarter of those polled say that the war has been worth it, a number likely only to decrease as the war’s economic costs continue to mount globally. Yet as a lame-duck president, Trump is in many ways immune to much of the pressure that would normally dog a highly unpopular leader. The war and associated inflation are likely to cost Republicans more seats in the midterms—certainly more than they might have lost otherwise—but the president faces no imminent revolt from Congress. He is remarkably unconstrained for a man who has started one of the most unpopular wars in U.S. history. More interesting, however, is the debate about whether the president is losing his base of support. High-profile defectors such as Tucker Carlson or Marjorie Taylor Greene have accused the president of abandoning his supporters; hawkish Republicans, meanwhile, respond by waving polls that show strong support for the war among those who identify as “MAGA Republicans.” But the debate about MAGA versus non-MAGA Republicans is obscuring the fact that Trump’s choice to go to war in Iran has wrecked the broader coalition that elected him. Unlike his core supporters, who will follow him through thick and thin, many in his broader coalition see the war in Iran as a broken promise. This group will continue to be influential on U.S. foreign policy going forward. Twenty-five years of Middle Eastern “forever wars” have left the public with relatively little patience for any military campaign that doesn’t seem to be going well. And unlike many of his predecessors, Trump’s White House did nothing to sell this war to the public before it started. Even now, two months into the war, the administration remains cagey on why the conflict was necessary in the first place. The numbers are quite consistent. Sixty-six percent of Americans disapprove of the decision to go to war, while 68 percent are opposed to the use of ground troops in…

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